Will JD Vance say “Fraud”?

As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Fraud” at 30 of 51 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jan 9, 2026 (59%), most recently on Oct 20, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 57% (n=51, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 rallies have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 3. No rallies among them yet.

57%from settlement history only · n=51Next: Rally, Oct 26, 2026 · counts: named speaker only
Last 10
7/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no yes yes no yes yes yes no yes
Streak
said last time
Counts
named speaker only
Market
69¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=fraud

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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

JD Vance

Fraud

Probability
57% · n=51
Settled
30/51 (59%)
Last 5 transcripts
said in 3 of 5

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have (5 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

JD VancespeakerVice President JD Vance Briefs Members of the Media, Sep. 3, 2026 · Sep 3, 2026 · 0:46In transcript

…up by 7.5 percent, and that effort was obviously led by our anti-fraud task force, because so many of these people were engaged in effectively…

JD VancespeakerVice President JD Vance Briefs Members of the Media, May 19, 2026 · May 19, 2026 · 0:39In transcript

…been doing, the great work our team has been doing on the anti-fraud task force where we have caught just in the last couple of…

JD VanceotherPress Briefing by Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt and the Vice President, Jan. 8, 2026 · Jan 8, 2026 · 3:07In transcript

…of what Karoline said about what we're doing to combat the rampant fraud that exists in our immigration system thanks to failed politicians and thanks…

What will JD Vance say during his fraud press conference? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will JD Vance say during his announcement? · settled yes

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We don’t have this transcript yet.

What will JD Vance say during his rally in North Carolina? · settled no

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What will JD Vance say during his CBS Town Hall? · settled yes

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We don’t have this transcript yet.

What will JD Vance say during his rally in Michigan? · settled yes

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We don’t have this transcript yet.

What will JD Vance say during his rally in Ohio? · settled yes

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What will JD Vance say during his rally in Alaska? · settled no

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What will JD Vance say during Fox News: Hannity? · settled yes

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What will JD Vance say during his Midterm Rally in Florida? · settled yes

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What will JD Vance say during his Midterm Rally in Texas? · settled no

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Every settled listing

newest first · 54 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Oct 20, 2026FraudKalshiYes–
Oct 19, 2026FraudKalshiNo–
Oct 17, 2026FraudKalshiYes–
Oct 15, 2026FraudKalshiYes–
Oct 9, 2026FraudKalshiYes–
Oct 5, 2026FraudKalshiNo–
Oct 1, 2026FraudKalshiYes–
Oct 1, 2026FraudKalshiYes–
Sep 30, 2026FraudKalshiNo–
Sep 29, 2026FraudKalshiYes–
Sep 14, 2026FraudKalshiYes–
Sep 9, 2026FraudKalshiYes–
Sep 3, 2026FraudKalshiYes–
Aug 31, 2026FraudKalshiYes–
Aug 24, 2026FraudKalshiYes–
Aug 21, 2026FraudKalshiNo–
Aug 13, 2026FraudKalshiYes–
Aug 8, 2026FraudKalshiYes–
Aug 5, 2026FraudKalshiYes–
Jul 1, 2026FraudKalshiNo–
Jun 30, 2026FraudKalshiNo–
Jun 17, 2026FraudKalshiNo–
Jun 16, 2026FraudKalshiNo–
Jun 16, 2026FraudKalshiNo–
Jun 16, 2026FraudKalshiNo–
Jun 16, 2026FraudKalshiNo–
Jun 15, 2026FraudKalshiNo–
Jun 14, 2026FraudKalshiNo–
Jun 8, 2026FraudKalshiYes–
May 29, 2026FraudKalshiVoid (did not qualify)–
May 28, 2026FraudPolymarketNo–
May 19, 2026FraudKalshiYes–
May 18, 2026FraudKalshiYes–
May 16, 2026FraudKalshiYes–
May 15, 2026FraudKalshiNo–
May 14, 2026FraudKalshiYes–
May 5, 2026FraudKalshiYes–
Apr 30, 2026FraudKalshiVoid (did not qualify)–
Apr 29, 2026FraudPolymarketYes–
Apr 29, 2026FraudKalshiYes–
Apr 14, 2026FraudKalshiYes–
Apr 13, 2026FraudKalshiNo–
Apr 7, 2026FraudKalshiNo–
Mar 18, 2026FraudKalshiYes–
Mar 17, 2026FraudKalshiNo–
Mar 13, 2026FraudKalshiYes–
Mar 9, 2026FraudKalshiNo–
Mar 3, 2026FraudKalshiNo–
Feb 27, 2026FraudKalshiYes–
Feb 26, 2026FraudPolymarketYes–
Feb 18, 2026FraudKalshiNo–
Jan 24, 2026FraudKalshiYes–
Jan 23, 2026FraudKalshiYes–
Jan 9, 2026FraudKalshiYes23

Questions

How often does JD Vance say “Fraud”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Fraud” at 30 of 51 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jan 9, 2026 (59%), most recently on Oct 20, 2026.
What is the probability JD Vance says “Fraud” next time?
57%, from settlement history (n=51). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘Fraud’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/fraud (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=fraud · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP