Will JD Vance say “Social Security”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Social Security” at 6 of 9 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 29, 2026 (67%), most recently on Oct 19, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 60% (n=9, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 rallies have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2. No rallies among them yet.
- Last 10
- 6/9Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes yes yes no yes no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 55¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
JD Vance
Social Security
- Probability
- 60% · n=9
- Settled
- 6/9 (67%)
- Last 5 transcripts
- said in 2 of 5
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (5 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…first Trump administration and deliver wins for working people: no taxes on Social Security, no taxes on tips, no taxes on overtime. We've seen $19…
…of billions of dollars into the pockets of families, no taxes on social security, no taxes on overtime, no taxes on tips. So, I reject…
We don’t have this transcript yet.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 11 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19, 2026 | Social Security |  Kalshi | Yes |
| Oct 15, 2026 | Social Security | Kalshi | No |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Social Security |  Polymarket | Yes |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Social Security | Kalshi | Yes |
| Oct 5, 2026 | Social Security | Kalshi | No |
| Oct 1, 2026 | Social Security | Kalshi | Yes |
| Sep 30, 2026 | Social Security | Kalshi | Yes |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Social Security | Polymarket | Yes |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Social Security | Kalshi | Yes |
| Jul 8, 2026 | Social Security | Polymarket | Yes |
| Apr 29, 2026 | Social Security | Polymarket | No |
Questions
- How often does JD Vance say “Social Security”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Social Security” at 6 of 9 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 29, 2026 (67%), most recently on Oct 19, 2026.
- What is the probability JD Vance says “Social Security” next time?
- 60%, from settlement history (n=9). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘Social Security’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/social-security (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=social%20security · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP