Will JD Vance say “America First”?

As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “America First” at 7 of 52 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 19, 2025 (13%), most recently on Oct 9, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 22% (n=52, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 rallies have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0. No rallies among them yet.

22%from settlement history only · n=52Next: Rally, Oct 26, 2026 · counts: named speaker only
Last 10
1/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no yes no no no no no
Streak
not said the last 5 times
Counts
named speaker only
Market
19¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=america%20first

Updated

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

JD Vance

America First

Probability
22% · n=52
Settled
7/52 (13%)
Last 5 transcripts
said in 0 of 5

Next listing counts: named speaker only

What will JD Vance say during his fraud press conference? · settled no

Open the appearance

What will JD Vance say during his announcement? · settled no

Open the appearance

What will JD Vance say during his rally in North Carolina? · settled no

Open the appearance

What will JD Vance say during his CBS Town Hall? · settled no

Open the appearance

What will JD Vance say during his rally in Michigan? · settled no

Open the appearance

What will JD Vance say during his rally in Ohio? · settled yes

Open the appearance

We don’t have this transcript yet.

What will JD Vance say during his rally in Alaska? · settled no

Open the appearance

What will JD Vance say during Fox News: Hannity? · settled no

Open the appearance

What will JD Vance say during his Midterm Rally in Florida? · settled no

Open the appearance

What will JD Vance say during his Midterm Rally in Texas? · settled no

Open the appearance

Every settled listing

newest first · 57 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Oct 21, 2026America FirstKalshiNo–
Oct 20, 2026America FirstKalshiNo–
Oct 19, 2026America FirstKalshiNo–
Oct 17, 2026America FirstKalshiNo–
Oct 15, 2026America FirstKalshiNo–
Oct 9, 2026America FirstKalshiYes–
Oct 5, 2026America FirstKalshiNo–
Oct 1, 2026America FirstKalshiNo–
Oct 1, 2026America FirstKalshiNo–
Sep 30, 2026America FirstKalshiNo–
Sep 21, 2026America FirstKalshiYes–
Sep 18, 2026America FirstKalshiNo–
Sep 14, 2026America FirstKalshiNo–
Sep 14, 2026America FirstKalshiNo–
Sep 9, 2026America FirstPolymarketNo–
Sep 9, 2026America FirstKalshiNo–
Sep 3, 2026America FirstKalshiNo–
Aug 31, 2026America FirstPolymarketNo–
Aug 31, 2026America FirstKalshiNo–
Aug 24, 2026America FirstKalshiYes–
Aug 21, 2026America FirstPolymarketNo–
Aug 21, 2026America FirstKalshiNo–
Aug 13, 2026America FirstKalshiNo–
Aug 8, 2026America FirstKalshiNo–
Jul 8, 2026America FirstKalshiNo–
Jul 1, 2026America FirstKalshiNo–
Jun 17, 2026America FirstKalshiNo–
Jun 16, 2026America FirstKalshiNo–
Jun 16, 2026America FirstKalshiNo–
Jun 16, 2026America FirstKalshiNo–
Jun 15, 2026America FirstKalshiYes–
Jun 14, 2026America FirstKalshiNo–
Jun 8, 2026America FirstKalshiNo–
May 29, 2026America FirstKalshiVoid (did not qualify)–
May 28, 2026America FirstKalshiNo–
May 18, 2026America FirstKalshiNo–
May 16, 2026America FirstKalshiNo–
May 14, 2026America FirstKalshiNo–
May 5, 2026America FirstKalshiNo–
Apr 30, 2026America FirstKalshiVoid (did not qualify)–
Apr 29, 2026America FirstKalshiNo–
Apr 14, 2026America FirstKalshiNo–
Apr 7, 2026America FirstKalshiNo–
Mar 9, 2026America FirstKalshiNo–
Mar 3, 2026America FirstKalshiNo–
Feb 5, 2026America FirstKalshiNo–
Jan 24, 2026America FirstKalshiNo–
Jan 23, 2026America FirstKalshiNo–
Jan 9, 2026America FirstKalshiNo0
Jan 8, 2026America FirstKalshiNo–
Dec 22, 2025America FirstKalshiYes–
Dec 21, 2025America FirstPolymarketYes–
Dec 17, 2025America FirstKalshiNo–
Nov 27, 2025America FirstKalshiNo–
Nov 21, 2025America FirstKalshiNo–
Oct 30, 2025America FirstKalshiYes–
Oct 19, 2025America FirstKalshiNo–

Questions

How often does JD Vance say “America First”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “America First” at 7 of 52 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 19, 2025 (13%), most recently on Oct 9, 2026.
What is the probability JD Vance says “America First” next time?
22%, from settlement history (n=52). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘America First’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/america-first (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=america%20first · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP