Will JD Vance say “Fake News”?

As of Oct 25, 2026, JD Vance said “Fake News” at 4 of 18 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Aug 27, 2024 (22%), most recently on Oct 1, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 29% (n=18, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 rallies have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.

29%from settlement history only · n=18counts: named speaker only
Last 10
2/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no yes no yes no no no no
Streak
not said the last 4 times
Counts
named speaker only
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=fake%20new

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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

JD Vance

Fake News

Probability
29% · n=18
Settled
4/18 (22%)
Last 5 transcripts
said in 0 of 5

Next listing counts: named speaker only

What will JD Vance say during his fraud press conference? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his rally in North Carolina? · settled no

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What will JD Vance say during his CBS Town Hall? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his rally in Michigan? · settled no

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What will JD Vance say during his rally in Ohio? · settled no

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What will JD Vance say during his rally in Alaska? · settled no

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What will JD Vance say during Fox News: Hannity? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his Midterm Rally in Florida? · settled yes

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We don’t have this transcript yet.

What will JD Vance say during his Midterm Rally in Texas? · settled no

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Every settled listing

newest first · 18 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResult
Oct 19, 2026Fake NewsKalshiNo
Oct 15, 2026Fake NewsKalshiNo
Oct 9, 2026Fake NewsKalshiNo
Oct 5, 2026Fake NewsKalshiNo
Oct 1, 2026Fake NewsKalshiYes
Sep 30, 2026Fake NewsKalshiNo
Sep 21, 2026Fake NewsKalshiYes
May 28, 2026Fake NewsPolymarketNo
Mar 18, 2026Fake NewsPolymarketNo
Mar 13, 2026Fake NewsPolymarketNo
Feb 26, 2026Fake NewsPolymarketNo
Oct 19, 2025Fake NewsKalshiNo
Sep 24, 2025Fake NewsPolymarketYes
Sep 21, 2025Fake NewsKalshiNo
Aug 28, 2025Fake NewsPolymarketYes
Oct 30, 2024Fake NewsPolymarketNo
Aug 28, 2024Fake NewsPolymarketNo
Aug 27, 2024Fake NewsPolymarketNo

Questions

How often does JD Vance say “Fake News”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, JD Vance said “Fake News” at 4 of 18 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Aug 27, 2024 (22%), most recently on Oct 1, 2026.
What is the probability JD Vance says “Fake News” next time?
29%, from settlement history (n=18). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘Fake News’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/fake-new (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=fake%20new · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP