Will JD Vance say “Iran”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Iran” at 8 of 15 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 1, 2024 (53%), most recently on Aug 13, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 52% (n=15, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 keynotes have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 3. No keynotes among them yet.
- Last 10
- 6/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no yes no yes yes yes yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 54¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
JD Vance
Iran
- Probability
- 52% · n=15
- Settled
- 8/15 (53%)
- Last 5 transcripts
- said in 3 of 5
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (5 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…to remember why are we doing this. Number one, it's so that Iran never has a nuclear weapon. And number two, what we're doing right…
…the bat. First of all, I think the president's peace plan in Iran is already bearing real fruits for the American people. Last night, 12.5…
…incredible job. And then finally, just to give an update on the Iran negotiation, the Iran situation. I just talked to the president very briefly…
Thank you, Mr. Vice President. So, we are seeing — regarding Iran, we are seeing the protests in Iran these days. The cities are begging…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 17 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Iran |  Polymarket | No |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Iran |  Kalshi | Yes |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Iran | Kalshi | Yes |
| Jun 30, 2026 | Iran | Kalshi | Yes |
| Jun 17, 2026 | Iran | Kalshi | Yes |
| Apr 29, 2026 | Iran | Polymarket | No |
| Apr 14, 2026 | Iran | Kalshi | Yes |
| Apr 1, 2026 | Iran | Kalshi | No |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Iran | Kalshi | No |
| Mar 18, 2026 | Iran | Polymarket | Yes |
| Mar 18, 2026 | Iran | Kalshi | Yes |
| Mar 17, 2026 | Iran | Kalshi | No |
| Mar 13, 2026 | Iran | Polymarket | Yes |
| Mar 13, 2026 | Iran | Kalshi | Yes |
| Jul 16, 2025 | Iran | Kalshi | No |
| Mar 14, 2025 | Iran | Kalshi | No |
| Oct 1, 2024 | Iran | Polymarket | Yes |
Questions
- How often does JD Vance say “Iran”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Iran” at 8 of 15 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 1, 2024 (53%), most recently on Aug 13, 2026.
- What is the probability JD Vance says “Iran” next time?
- 52%, from settlement history (n=15). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘Iran’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/iran (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=iran · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP