JD Vance: Rally, Sep 18, 2026
Kalshi What will JD Vance say during his Midterm Rally in Iowa ?
Polymarket What will JD Vance say during his Midterm Rally in Iowa?
Markets
34 words · 14 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrat | Yes | 66%n=45 from settlement history | – |
| Tax on Tips / Tax on Overtime | Yes | 65%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 57%n=63 from settlement history | – |
| Illegal Alien | Yes | 51%n=40 from settlement history | – |
| Election | Yes | 51%n=34 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 51%n=44 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | 48%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Corn | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| America / American 10+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Radical | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| 2028 / Campaign | Yes | 35%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Joe / Biden 3+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| President / Trump 5+ times | Yes | 32%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Working Class / Middle Class | Yes | 32%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Inflation | No | 54%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Manufacture / Manufacturing | No | 53%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Invest / Invested / Investment | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Small Business | No | 50%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Ass | No | 46%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Christian | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 45%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| California | No | 44%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| American Dream | No | 40%n=33 from settlement history | – |
| Somali / Somalia / Somalian | No | 40%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Economy / Economic | No | 38%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Hell 3+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Usha | No | 37%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 27%n=36 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 25%n=50 from settlement history | – |
| ID / Identification | No | 24%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Made in America / American Made | No | 22%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Free Speech / Freedom of Speech | No | 20%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| America First | No | 18%n=42 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | No | 13%n=27 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXVANCEMENTION-26SEP18 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP