Will JD Vance say “American Dream”?

As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “American Dream” at 20 of 40 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 15, 2025 (50%), most recently on Oct 9, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 33% (n=40, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 rallies have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0. No rallies among them yet.

33%from settlement history only · n=40Next: Rally, Oct 26, 2026 · counts: named speaker only
Last 10
2/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes no no no yes no no no
Streak
not said the last 3 times
Counts
named speaker only
Market
24¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=american%20dream

Updated

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

JD Vance

American Dream

Probability
33% · n=40
Settled
20/40 (50%)
Last 5 transcripts
said in 0 of 5

Next listing counts: named speaker only

What will JD Vance say during his fraud press conference? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will JD Vance say during his announcement? · settled no

Open the appearance

What will JD Vance say during his rally in North Carolina? · settled no

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What will JD Vance say during his CBS Town Hall? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his rally in Michigan? · settled no

Open the appearance

What will JD Vance say during his rally in Ohio? · settled yes

Open the appearance

We don’t have this transcript yet.

What will JD Vance say during his rally in Alaska? · settled no

Open the appearance

What will JD Vance say during Fox News: Hannity? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will JD Vance say during his Midterm Rally in Florida? · settled no

Open the appearance

What will JD Vance say during his Midterm Rally in Texas? · settled no

Open the appearance

Every settled listing

newest first · 45 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResult
Oct 20, 2026American DreamKalshiNo
Oct 19, 2026American DreamKalshiNo
Oct 15, 2026American DreamKalshiNo
Oct 9, 2026American DreamKalshiYes
Oct 5, 2026American DreamKalshiNo
Oct 1, 2026American DreamKalshiNo
Sep 30, 2026American DreamKalshiNo
Sep 21, 2026American DreamKalshiYes
Sep 18, 2026American DreamPolymarketNo
Sep 18, 2026American DreamKalshiNo
Sep 14, 2026American DreamKalshiNo
Sep 9, 2026American DreamPolymarketYes
Sep 9, 2026American DreamKalshiYes
Sep 3, 2026American DreamKalshiNo
Aug 13, 2026American DreamKalshiNo
Jul 1, 2026American DreamKalshiYes
Jun 17, 2026American DreamKalshiNo
Jun 16, 2026American DreamKalshiNo
Jun 16, 2026American DreamKalshiNo
Jun 15, 2026American DreamKalshiNo
May 29, 2026American DreamKalshiVoid (did not qualify)
May 18, 2026American DreamKalshiYes
May 16, 2026American DreamKalshiNo
May 15, 2026American DreamKalshiNo
May 14, 2026American DreamKalshiNo
May 5, 2026American DreamKalshiYes
Apr 30, 2026American DreamKalshiVoid (did not qualify)
Apr 14, 2026American DreamKalshiYes
Mar 18, 2026American DreamPolymarketYes
Mar 18, 2026American DreamKalshiYes
Mar 17, 2026American DreamKalshiNo
Mar 13, 2026American DreamKalshiYes
Mar 9, 2026American DreamKalshiYes
Feb 27, 2026American DreamKalshiYes
Jan 23, 2026American DreamKalshiYes
Dec 22, 2025American DreamKalshiYes
Dec 21, 2025American DreamPolymarketYes
Dec 17, 2025American DreamKalshiYes
Nov 21, 2025American DreamKalshiYes
Nov 14, 2025American DreamKalshiYes
Oct 30, 2025American DreamKalshiYes
Sep 24, 2025American DreamKalshiYes
Sep 21, 2025American DreamKalshiNo
Sep 17, 2025American DreamKalshiYes
Sep 15, 2025American DreamPolymarketNo

Questions

How often does JD Vance say “American Dream”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “American Dream” at 20 of 40 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 15, 2025 (50%), most recently on Oct 9, 2026.
What is the probability JD Vance says “American Dream” next time?
33%, from settlement history (n=40). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘American Dream’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/american-dream (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=american%20dream · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP