JD Vance: Rally, Oct 1, 2026
Kalshi What will JD Vance say during his Midterm Rally in Florida?
Markets
29 words · 15 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrat | Yes | 75%n=49 from settlement history | – |
| Tax on Tips / Tax on Overtime | Yes | 75%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 69%n=67 from settlement history | – |
| Illegal Alien | Yes | 64%n=43 from settlement history | – |
| Election | Yes | 64%n=37 from settlement history | – |
| Social Security | Yes | 63%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | 53%n=34 from settlement history | – |
| Working Class / Middle Class | Yes | 53%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| 2028 / Campaign | Yes | 52%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | Yes | 51%n=45 from settlement history | – |
| Economy / Economic | Yes | 49%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Inflation | Yes | 48%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Byron / Donalds | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fake News | Yes | 36%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | Yes | 32%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 56%n=48 from settlement history | – |
| DeSantis | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| China / Chinese | No | 44%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Manufacture / Manufacturing | No | 41%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| American Dream | No | 39%n=36 from settlement history | – |
| California | No | 36%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 34%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 30%n=36 from settlement history | – |
| ID / Identification | No | 29%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Food Stamp / SNAP | No | 29%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| America First | No | 24%n=45 from settlement history | – |
| ICE | No | 24%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 23%n=54 from settlement history | – |
| Made in America / American Made | No | 18%n=12 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXVANCEMENTION-26OCT01 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP