JD Vance: Rally, Sep 30, 2026
Kalshi What will JD Vance say during his Midterm Rally in Texas?
Markets
27 words · 14 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrat | Yes | 73%n=48 from settlement history | – |
| Tax on Tips / Tax on Overtime | Yes | 72%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 66%n=66 from settlement history | – |
| Illegal Alien | Yes | 60%n=42 from settlement history | – |
| Election | Yes | 60%n=36 from settlement history | – |
| Social Security | Yes | 56%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Working Class / Middle Class | Yes | 47%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| 2028 / Campaign | Yes | 47%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Talarico | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Border | Yes | 44%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Inflation | Yes | 42%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Economy / Economic | Yes | 42%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Manufacture / Manufacturing | Yes | 28%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | Yes | 23%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 61%n=47 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | No | 59%n=33 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | No | 56%n=44 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | No | 49%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| American Dream | No | 43%n=35 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | No | 41%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 37%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 33%n=35 from settlement history | – |
| ID / Identification | No | 32%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| ICE | No | 28%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| America First | No | 26%n=44 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 25%n=53 from settlement history | – |
| Made in America / American Made | No | 19%n=11 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXVANCEMENTION-26SEP30 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP