Donald Trump: Remarks, Jan 15, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say during the Signing Ceremony?
Polymarket What will Trump say during Panthers visit on January 15?
Markets
39 words · 19 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trillion | Yes | 68%n=52 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 67%n=148 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | Yes | 62%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 60%n=64 from settlement history | – |
| Job 5+ times | Yes | 59%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Eight War | Yes | 56%n=33 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 55%n=114 from settlement history | – |
| China | Yes | 52%n=97 from settlement history | – |
| Venezuela / Military | Yes | 48%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| Bobby / Kennedy | Yes | 46%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Greenland | Yes | 44%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Comeback | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Oval Office | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Unbelievable / Fantastic / Incredible 10+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Good looking | Yes | 40%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Farmer | Yes | 37%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Tough Cookie | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| MAHA / Make America Healthy Again | Yes | 36%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Hell 3+ times | Yes | 30%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | No | 57%n=81 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | No | 52%n=38 from settlement history | – |
| Home / Housing | No | 47%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Somali / Somalia / Somalian | No | 46%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Friend of mine | No | 45%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Supreme Court | No | 43%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Olympic | No | 42%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Blowout | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Good Genetics | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hall of Fame | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Picture | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Rematch | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| ICE / National Guard | No | 40%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | No | 40%n=49 from settlement history | – |
| Credit | No | 37%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Too Late | No | 35%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Affordable / Affordability | No | 34%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| Maduro | No | 27%n=43 from settlement history | – |
| Bone | No | 22%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 6%n=230 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-26JAN15 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP