Donald Trump: America is Back Rally, Jun 24, 2026
At the rally on Jun 24, 2026, Donald Trump said 26 of the 71 words Kalshi and Polymarket listed.
UpdatedMarkets
71 words · 26 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi - Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iran 5+ times | Yes | 65%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Venezuela | Yes | 64%n=34 from settlement history | – |
| Trillion | Yes | 57%n=103 from settlement history | – |
| Gulf of America | Yes | 55%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| First Term | Yes | 54%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Invest / Invested / Investment | Yes | 53%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | Yes | 52%n=149 from settlement history | – |
| Russia | Yes | 52%n=62 from settlement history | – |
| California | Yes | 51%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Arch / Ballroom | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| America First | Yes | 50%n=49 from settlement history | – |
| Birthday | Yes | 48%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| MAGA / Make America Great Again | Yes | 47%n=59 from settlement history | – |
| World Cup / Olympics | Yes | 46%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Drill Baby Drill | Yes | 45%n=78 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 45%n=262 from settlement history | – |
| Communist / Communism | Yes | 45%n=45 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | Yes | 44%n=123 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | Yes | 43%n=105 from settlement history | – |
| World Cup | Yes | 42%n=41 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 41%n=51 from settlement history | – |
| American Dream | Yes | 39%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Reflecting / Pool | Yes | 39%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Fentanyl | Yes | 39%n=39 from settlement history | – |
| Ballroom | Yes | 37%n=83 from settlement history | – |
| MAHA / Make America Healthy Again | Yes | 36%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Sleepy Joe | No | 71%n=89 from settlement history | – |
| Space Force | No | 60%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Landslide | No | 60%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Secret Service | No | 58%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| SAVE Act / Save America Act | No | 57%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Barack Hussein Obama | No | 56%n=102 from settlement history | – |
| Mental Institution | No | 55%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Cuba / Cuban | No | 55%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Save America Act | No | 55%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | No | 54%n=72 from settlement history | – |
| MAGA | No | 53%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Terminate / Terminated | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Midnight Hammer | No | 52%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Joe / Biden 10+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Dumbocrat / Dumacrat | No | 50%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Olympic / Olympics | No | 50%n=39 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | No | 49%n=32 from settlement history | – |
| Eiffel | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tax 20+ times | No | 48%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Soybean | No | 47%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Low IQ | No | 46%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Eight War | No | 45%n=79 from settlement history | – |
| Weightlifter / Weightlifting | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Ronaldo / Messi / Pele | No | 45%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| JD / Vance | No | 43%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Dumocrat / Dumbocrat / Dumacrat | No | 42%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| UFC | No | 42%n=38 from settlement history | – |
| Third term | No | 41%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Kamala | No | 41%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | No | 40%n=42 from settlement history | – |
| Cheat / Cheater / Cheating | No | 38%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Hoax | No | 37%n=34 from settlement history | – |
| Supreme Court | No | 36%n=50 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 28%n=177 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 11%n=409 from settlement history | – |
| 40 or above | No | – | – |
| 45 or above | No | – | – |
| 50 or above | No | – | – |
| 55 or above | No | – | – |
| 60 or above | No | – | – |
| 65 or above | No | – | – |
| 70 or above | No | – | – |
| 75 or above | No | – | – |
| 80 or above | No | – | – |
| 85 or above | No | – | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/donald-trump:2026-06-24:rally · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=donald-trump:2026-06-24:rally · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP