Donald Trump: Remarks, Feb 7, 2026
Kalshi Mention: Trump signs Executive Orders
Polymarket What will Trump say during Honduran President events on February 7?
Markets
35 words · 0 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tariff | No | 65%n=119 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | No | 61%n=77 from settlement history | – |
| Minnesota / Minneapolis | No | 60%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Drug | No | 60%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | No | 60%n=173 from settlement history | – |
| TrumpRX / TrumpRX.gov | No | 60%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Border | No | 58%n=96 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | No | 53%n=101 from settlement history | – |
| NATO | No | 52%n=45 from settlement history | – |
| Election | No | 52%n=62 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 51%n=139 from settlement history | – |
| Eight War | No | 51%n=51 from settlement history | – |
| Peace | No | 48%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 46%n=94 from settlement history | – |
| China | No | 44%n=110 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff 5+ times | No | 42%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| JD / Vance | No | 40%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Somali / Somalia / Somalian | No | 40%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Caribbean | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Castro | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Friend | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hernández | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Power | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Deport / Deportation | No | 38%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | No | 37%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Million / Billion / Trillion 5+ times | No | 37%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| California | No | 36%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Leader | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Inflation | No | 35%n=44 from settlement history | – |
| Affordable / Affordability | No | 33%n=50 from settlement history | – |
| Woke / DEI | No | 32%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| ICE / National Guard | No | 31%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Epstein | No | 27%n=69 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | No | 24%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 5%n=262 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-26FEB07 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP