Donald Trump: Remarks, Jan 7, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say during his remarks at the House GOP Member Retreat?
Markets
20 words · 15 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | 65%n=142 from settlement history | – |
| Big Beautiful Bill | Yes | 59%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 58%n=60 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 53%n=108 from settlement history | – |
| China | Yes | 51%n=95 from settlement history | – |
| Border | Yes | 51%n=85 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 50%n=78 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine | Yes | 49%n=38 from settlement history | – |
| Terrorist / Narcoterrorist | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | 45%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Investment / Invested | Yes | 43%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Fentanyl / Cocaine | Yes | 34%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Inflation | Yes | 30%n=39 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 28%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Maduro | Yes | 19%n=39 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | No | 58%n=75 from settlement history | – |
| Eight War | No | 55%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Somali / Somalia / Somalian | No | 49%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Affordable / Affordability | No | 36%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 6%n=222 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTIONB-26JAN07 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP