Donald Trump: Remarks, Apr 16, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say during his roundtable on No Tax on Tips?
Polymarket What will Trump say during No Tax on Tips Roundtable?
Markets
60 words · 35 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trillion | Yes | 61%n=86 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 58%n=158 from settlement history | – |
| Big Beautiful Bill | Yes | 57%n=39 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 57%n=121 from settlement history | – |
| Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 56%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 54%n=229 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 52%n=129 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | Yes | 50%n=87 from settlement history | – |
| Dow / S&P | Yes | 49%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Child / Childhood | Yes | 48%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Russia | Yes | 48%n=54 from settlement history | – |
| Social Security | Yes | 47%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Trump Account | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Farmer | Yes | 46%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Oil | Yes | 46%n=65 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | Yes | 44%n=59 from settlement history | – |
| Million / Billion / Trillion 15+ times | Yes | 44%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Made in America | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 43%n=200 from settlement history | – |
| Waiter / Waitress | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Women's sports | Yes | 41%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Waitress | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| DoorDash | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Landslide | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Midterm | Yes | 40%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Tax 10+ times | Yes | 39%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Great Big Beautiful Bill | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Regulation | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Win / Won 3+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| ICE / TSA | Yes | 38%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Casino | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Refund | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| DoorDash / McDonald's | Yes | 34%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| McDonald / McDonalds | Yes | 32%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| Inflation | Yes | 30%n=50 from settlement history | – |
| Newscum | No | 58%n=52 from settlement history | – |
| Election | No | 57%n=80 from settlement history | – |
| Mental Institution | No | 56%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Obliterate / Obliterated / Obliteration | No | 54%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| American Dream | No | 53%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| China | No | 51%n=143 from settlement history | – |
| Barack Hussein Obama | No | 49%n=67 from settlement history | – |
| Endorse / Endorsed / Endorsement | No | 46%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Eight War | No | 46%n=72 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 44%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Air force | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Favored Nation | No | 44%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Kamala | No | 41%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Percent 10+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Job 12+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fraud | No | 37%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Blockade | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Hezbollah | No | 36%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Deficit | No | 33%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Fed / Federal Reserve | No | 33%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | No | 31%n=32 from settlement history | – |
| Save America Act | No | 31%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 27%n=39 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 24%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 4%n=339 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-26APR16 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP