Donald Trump: Remarks, Jan 30, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say during his Cabinet Meeting?
Markets
28 words · 16 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tariff | Yes | 63%n=113 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 63%n=163 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 63%n=71 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 56%n=95 from settlement history | – |
| Housing | Yes | 55%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Highest Inflation | Yes | 55%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| China | Yes | 54%n=105 from settlement history | – |
| Eight War | Yes | 52%n=45 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | Yes | 50%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 49%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 48%n=90 from settlement history | – |
| Credit | Yes | 39%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | Yes | 35%n=57 from settlement history | – |
| Somali / Somalia / Somalian | Yes | 32%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 31%n=43 from settlement history | – |
| Too Late | Yes | 26%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | No | 61%n=40 from settlement history | – |
| Paid Agitator / Professional Agitator | No | 57%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 56%n=129 from settlement history | – |
| Scholarship | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Golden Age / Golden Dome | No | 46%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Greenland / Iceland | No | 45%n=35 from settlement history | – |
| Woke / DEI | No | 45%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Teacher | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| ICE / National Guard | No | 36%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | No | 33%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Walz | No | 31%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 6%n=249 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-26JAN30 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP