Donald Trump: Speech, Jan 14, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say during his remarks at the Detroit Economic Club?
Markets
30 words · 23 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | 71%n=146 from settlement history | – |
| Big Beautiful Bill | Yes | 64%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 63%n=104 from settlement history | – |
| Eight War | Yes | 62%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| Trillion | Yes | 62%n=50 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 59%n=80 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 58%n=79 from settlement history | – |
| Tax on Tips / Tax on Overtime | Yes | 55%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 54%n=112 from settlement history | – |
| Electric / Electricity | Yes | 53%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Home / Housing | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| China | Yes | 50%n=96 from settlement history | – |
| Somali / Somalia / Somalian | Yes | 50%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 48%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| Automobile | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 44%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Manufacturing / Manufacture | Yes | 44%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Credit | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump | Yes | 43%n=37 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | Yes | 42%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Inflation | Yes | 41%n=41 from settlement history | – |
| Rare Earth / Mineral | Yes | 40%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | Yes | 39%n=37 from settlement history | – |
| Drill Baby Drill | No | 57%n=38 from settlement history | – |
| Donroe Doctrine | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Greenland | No | 47%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine | No | 47%n=39 from settlement history | – |
| Too Late | No | 42%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Maduro | No | 37%n=42 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 14%n=229 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTIONB-26JAN14 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP