Donald Trump: Remarks, Jan 28, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say during his remarks in Iowa?
Polymarket What will Trump say during remarks on January 28?
Markets
46 words · 30 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trillion | Yes | 67%n=61 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 64%n=161 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 62%n=70 from settlement history | – |
| Big Beautiful Bill | Yes | 61%n=32 from settlement history | – |
| MAGA / Make America Great Again | Yes | 56%n=39 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 55%n=127 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | Yes | 55%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 54%n=94 from settlement history | – |
| China | Yes | 53%n=104 from settlement history | – |
| Investment / Invested | Yes | 53%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Million / Billion / Trillion 15+ times | Yes | 48%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Highest Inflation | Yes | 46%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 44%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Friend of Mine | Yes | 42%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| November 5 | Yes | 42%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| 1.99 / Dollar Nine Nine | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| 20 Year / 21 Year | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Kid / Child 10+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Social Security / Overtime / Tip 4+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump 6+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Corn / Soybean | Yes | 38%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Farmer | Yes | 38%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Paid Agitator / Professional Agitator | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Common Sense | Yes | 38%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Golden Age / Golden Dome | Yes | 34%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Home / Housing | Yes | 34%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | Yes | 32%n=42 from settlement history | – |
| Economy | Yes | 30%n=32 from settlement history | – |
| Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 30%n=41 from settlement history | – |
| Credit | Yes | 30%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Eight War | No | 54%n=44 from settlement history | – |
| Greenland | No | 48%n=32 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 48%n=88 from settlement history | – |
| Depreciate / Depreciation | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| ICE / National Guard | No | 45%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Don Lemon | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Renee Good | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Too Late | No | 41%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Buy a Dell Computer | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| CFTC | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Insurance Company | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Davos | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Somali / Somalia / Somalian | No | 36%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Iceland | No | 34%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Nobel | No | 13%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 6%n=245 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-26JAN28 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP