Donald Trump: Keynote, May 20, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say during his keynote address at Coast Guard Academy Commencement?
Polymarket What will Trump say during Coast Guard Keynote?
Markets
53 words · 29 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trillion | Yes | 71%n=96 from settlement history | – |
| Smart / Genius | Yes | 69%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 66%n=148 from settlement history | – |
| Venezuela | Yes | 63%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 61%n=235 from settlement history | – |
| Border | Yes | 60%n=109 from settlement history | – |
| First Term | Yes | 60%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Gulf of America | Yes | 59%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | Yes | 58%n=103 from settlement history | – |
| Texas | Yes | 58%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Election | Yes | 57%n=91 from settlement history | – |
| Russia / Russian | Yes | 57%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Space Force | Yes | 57%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | Yes | 56%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| China | Yes | 54%n=157 from settlement history | – |
| Kevin / Warsh | Yes | 54%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Recruit / Recruiting / Recruitment | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Bravest People | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fighter | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Finland | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Life 13+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Long Blue Line | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Maduro | Yes | 49%n=58 from settlement history | – |
| God 5+ times | Yes | 48%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Hell | Yes | 47%n=33 from settlement history | – |
| Drug / Fentanyl | Yes | 44%n=73 from settlement history | – |
| National Security | Yes | 43%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| America First | Yes | 35%n=40 from settlement history | – |
| Illegal Alien | Yes | 34%n=46 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | No | 67%n=144 from settlement history | – |
| 250 | No | 63%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Sleepy Joe | No | 61%n=80 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | No | 59%n=81 from settlement history | – |
| Best military | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| ISIS | No | 54%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Medal | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Semper | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Skirmish | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Eight War | No | 50%n=75 from settlement history | – |
| Puerto Rico | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Rebuilt / Rebuild | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Afghanistan | No | 45%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Cuba | No | 44%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Winner / Loser | No | 43%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| DEI / Woke | No | 43%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 42%n=152 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | No | 42%n=38 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | No | 42%n=125 from settlement history | – |
| Supreme Court | No | 41%n=48 from settlement history | – |
| Six Seven | No | 40%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Drone | No | 39%n=45 from settlement history | – |
| Ballroom | No | 37%n=65 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 20%n=375 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-26MAY20C · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP