Donald Trump: Remarks, Dec 22, 2025
Polymarket What will Trump say during the Shipbuilding Announcement?
Markets
21 words · 14 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Million / Billion / Trillion 10+ times | Yes | 60%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 59%n=135 from settlement history | – |
| Mental institution | Yes | 57%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 55%n=102 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 52%n=94 from settlement history | – |
| F-35 | Yes | 50%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 50%n=75 from settlement history | – |
| Eight wars | Yes | 46%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Any questions | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Drug / Gang 7+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ship / Boat 7+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Venezuela | Yes | 35%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Submarine | Yes | 32%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Maduro | Yes | 25%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| Hell | No | 50%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Japan / South Korea | No | 46%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Coast Guard / Cutter | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Peace in the Middle East | No | 40%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| N Word | No | 35%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Operation / Spear | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Inflation | No | 32%n=34 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-the-shipbuilding-announcement · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP