Donald Trump: Speech, Feb 24, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say during the State of the Union?
Markets
54 words · 28 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mental Institution | Yes | 66%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Trillion | Yes | 66%n=72 from settlement history | – |
| No No No | Yes | 65%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Eight War | Yes | 60%n=54 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 60%n=109 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 57%n=153 from settlement history | – |
| TrumpRX / TrumpRX.gov | Yes | 57%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 56%n=102 from settlement history | – |
| Cheat / Cheater / Cheating | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump | Yes | 52%n=42 from settlement history | – |
| Midnight Hammer | Yes | 50%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | Yes | 50%n=41 from settlement history | – |
| Somali / Somalia / Somalian | Yes | 50%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| Egg | Yes | 50%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Olympics / World Cup | Yes | 49%n=45 from settlement history | – |
| Foster | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| The State of The / Our Union is Strong | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hockey | Yes | 48%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| 250 | Yes | 48%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Fentanyl / Cocaine | Yes | 46%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Affordability | Yes | 45%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| DEI / Woke | Yes | 44%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Drill Baby Drill | Yes | 43%n=50 from settlement history | – |
| Supreme Court | Yes | 41%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Alien | Yes | 41%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Cartel | Yes | 39%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | Yes | 37%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| ICE / National Guard | Yes | 34%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Sleepy Joe | No | 71%n=51 from settlement history | – |
| Autopen / Auto Pen | No | 63%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Windmill | No | 56%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome | No | 54%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | No | 54%n=69 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | No | 52%n=59 from settlement history | – |
| DOGE / Department of Government Efficiency | No | 49%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Nationalize / Nationalized | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| SAVE Act | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Discombobulator | No | 49%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| UFC | No | 48%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Cancer | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Rare Earth / Mineral | No | 47%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Genius Act | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Radical Left | No | 46%n=47 from settlement history | – |
| Martial Law | No | 46%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Ethereum | No | 46%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Vaccine / Autism | No | 45%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Coal | No | 44%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Hoax | No | 44%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| MAHA / Make America Healthy Again | No | 43%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Insurrection Act | No | 38%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Highest Inflation | No | 38%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Ballroom | No | 34%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Golden Dome | No | 28%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 13%n=283 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:05 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-26FEB28 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP