Donald Trump: Remarks, Feb 4, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say during the Bill Signing?
Markets
20 words · 7 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trillion | Yes | 69%n=63 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 64%n=114 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 64%n=73 from settlement history | – |
| Walz / Minnesota | Yes | 59%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Border | Yes | 54%n=92 from settlement history | – |
| Investment / Invested | Yes | 52%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Epstein | Yes | 25%n=63 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | No | 62%n=167 from settlement history | – |
| Highest Inflation | No | 58%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| China | No | 54%n=107 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 54%n=134 from settlement history | – |
| Eight War | No | 53%n=47 from settlement history | – |
| Autopen | No | 50%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| Marco / Rubio | No | 50%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Colombia | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Cocaine / Fentanyl | No | 45%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Affordable / Affordability | No | 32%n=46 from settlement history | – |
| Schumer | No | 31%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| ICE / National Guard | No | 30%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 6%n=255 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTIONB-26FEB04 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP