Donald Trump: Remarks, Dec 25, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say during his Christmas Eve service member calls?
Markets
20 words · 2 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tariff | Yes | 64%n=97 from settlement history | – |
| China | Yes | 52%n=91 from settlement history | – |
| Trillion | No | 70%n=45 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | No | 65%n=138 from settlement history | – |
| Olympics / 250 | No | 62%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | No | 56%n=71 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 56%n=105 from settlement history | – |
| Eight Wars | No | 53%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Border | No | 52%n=82 from settlement history | – |
| Gas / Gasoline | No | 52%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Election | No | 51%n=54 from settlement history | – |
| Affordable / Affordability | No | 42%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Investment | No | 41%n=51 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | No | 37%n=35 from settlement history | – |
| Inflation | No | 33%n=37 from settlement history | – |
| Economy | No | 32%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Santa | No | 29%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Maduro | No | 20%n=34 from settlement history | – |
| Drone | No | 18%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Woke | No | 16%n=35 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTIONB-25DEC25 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP