Donald Trump: Remarks, Jan 23, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say during the Peace Charter Announcement?
Markets
16 words · 11 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | 63%n=157 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | Yes | 63%n=38 from settlement history | – |
| Hamas | Yes | 58%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 52%n=90 from settlement history | – |
| Eight War | Yes | 52%n=41 from settlement history | – |
| Investment / Invested | Yes | 49%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| NATO | Yes | 47%n=43 from settlement history | – |
| Hostage | Yes | 46%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Witkoff / Kushner | Yes | 45%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Russia / Ukraine | Yes | 40%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Bibi | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Abraham Accord | No | 45%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Build / Rebuild | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| World Peace / Peace on Earth | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Disaster | No | 39%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Refugee | No | 38%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-26JAN23 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP