Donald Trump: Keynote, Mar 9, 2026
Kalshi Mention: Trump at the Republican Members Issues Conference
Polymarket What will Trump say during remarks to the Republican Members Issues Conference?
Markets
53 words · 26 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | 70%n=198 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 69%n=114 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 66%n=136 from settlement history | – |
| Midnight Hammer | Yes | 65%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | Yes | 63%n=66 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 61%n=96 from settlement history | – |
| Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 57%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Big Beautiful Bill | Yes | 57%n=35 from settlement history | – |
| Manufacture / Manufacturing | Yes | 56%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | Yes | 55%n=77 from settlement history | – |
| American Dream | Yes | 55%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| China | Yes | 55%n=123 from settlement history | – |
| Filibuster | Yes | 54%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 53%n=162 from settlement history | – |
| Hell 8+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| SAVE Act / Save America Act | Yes | 51%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | Yes | 51%n=62 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat 5+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Oil | Yes | 48%n=37 from settlement history | – |
| ID / Identification | Yes | 48%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Epic Fury | Yes | 43%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Supreme Court | Yes | 42%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | Yes | 39%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | Yes | 32%n=70 from settlement history | – |
| Sleepy Joe | No | 72%n=57 from settlement history | – |
| Eight War | No | 57%n=60 from settlement history | – |
| Egg | No | 55%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Million / Billion / Trillion 20+ times | No | 54%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Crooked | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Joe / Biden 7+ times | No | 52%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Pakistan | No | 51%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Kamala / Harris | No | 51%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 50%n=108 from settlement history | – |
| Delcy / Rodríguez | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Cartel | No | 49%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Cuba | No | 47%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Golden Age | No | 46%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| America First | No | 46%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Dictator / Maduro | No | 46%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Kurd / Kurdish | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Radical Left | No | 44%n=50 from settlement history | – |
| Obliterate / Obliterated / Obliteration | No | 42%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Woke / DEI | No | 41%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Six Seven | No | 41%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| BIBI / Netanyahu | No | 36%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| President Xi | No | 35%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | No | 34%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Ayatollah / Khamenei | No | 31%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Khamenei / Son | No | 28%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Mog / Mogged / Mogging | No | 25%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 21%n=298 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXPRESMENTION-DJT26MAR09 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP