Donald Trump: Interview, Jan 9, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say during his Fox News appearance?
Polymarket What will Trump say during oil executive meetings on Friday?
Markets
35 words · 24 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | 74%n=143 from settlement history | – |
| Trillion | Yes | 66%n=48 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 65%n=102 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 60%n=61 from settlement history | – |
| Border | Yes | 53%n=86 from settlement history | – |
| Eight War | Yes | 53%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| China / Russia | Yes | 52%n=125 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 50%n=76 from settlement history | – |
| Russia / Russian | Yes | 47%n=62 from settlement history | – |
| Million / Billion / Trillion 12+ times | Yes | 45%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Home / Housing | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Doug / Burgum | Yes | 43%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Gallon / Barrel | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 41%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Drill / Drilling | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Oil 15+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Venezuela 7+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 40%n=109 from settlement history | – |
| Stolen / Steal | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Maduro / Dictator | Yes | 36%n=53 from settlement history | – |
| Minnesota / ICE | Yes | 34%n=33 from settlement history | – |
| Invest / Investment | Yes | 34%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Maduro | Yes | 31%n=40 from settlement history | – |
| ICE / National Guard | Yes | 30%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Somali / Somalia / Somalian | No | 50%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | No | 48%n=35 from settlement history | – |
| Fentanyl / Cocaine | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Walz | No | 42%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Greenland | No | 41%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Learing | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Illegal | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| California | No | 40%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | No | 40%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Sanction | No | 23%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 12%n=223 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTIONB-26JAN09 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP