Donald Trump: Interview, Jan 14, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say during his CBS interview?
Markets
18 words · 10 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | 77%n=147 from settlement history | – |
| Trillion | Yes | 71%n=51 from settlement history | – |
| Eight War | Yes | 62%n=32 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | Yes | 58%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 55%n=80 from settlement history | – |
| ICE / National Guard | Yes | 46%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Protest / Protester | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 39%n=113 from settlement history | – |
| Economy / Economic | Yes | 38%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| Maduro / Venezuela | Yes | 36%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | No | 65%n=63 from settlement history | – |
| Home / Housing | No | 56%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Elon / Musk / Starlink | No | 50%n=73 from settlement history | – |
| Obliterate / Obliterated | No | 49%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Affordable / Affordability | No | 49%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Somalia / Somalian / Somali | No | 47%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Credit | No | 44%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Greenland | No | 37%n=19 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-26JAN14 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP