Donald Trump: Interview, Jan 21, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say during his NewsNation interview?
Markets
17 words · 11 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | 76%n=153 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | Yes | 66%n=36 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 59%n=66 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 57%n=85 from settlement history | – |
| Election | Yes | 54%n=59 from settlement history | – |
| ICE / National Guard | Yes | 54%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 45%n=119 from settlement history | – |
| Maduro / Venezuela | Yes | 44%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Inflation | Yes | 43%n=42 from settlement history | – |
| Russia / Ukraine | Yes | 42%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Greenland | Yes | 34%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Eight War | No | 64%n=36 from settlement history | – |
| Affordable / Affordability | No | 40%n=34 from settlement history | – |
| Somali / Somalia / Somalian | No | 38%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | No | 36%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Illegal Alien | No | 28%n=34 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 13%n=237 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-26JAN21 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP