Donald Trump: Episode, Mar 13, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say during The Brian Kilmeade Show?
Markets
19 words · 5 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrat | Yes | 65%n=101 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 63%n=201 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | Yes | 60%n=71 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 59%n=116 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | Yes | 41%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Gas / Gasoline | No | 56%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | No | 51%n=66 from settlement history | – |
| Oil | No | 50%n=43 from settlement history | – |
| Eight War | No | 46%n=62 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 45%n=110 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 44%n=167 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 41%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Khamenei / Son | No | 38%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| National Security | No | 36%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| America First | No | 32%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Highest Inflation | No | 30%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Epstein | No | 26%n=93 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | No | 25%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 15%n=303 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXPRESMENTION-DJT26MAR13B · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP