Donald Trump: Remarks, May 5, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say during his proclamation?
Markets
34 words · 14 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| 250 | Yes | 68%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 57%n=133 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 57%n=136 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 55%n=241 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | Yes | 54%n=96 from settlement history | – |
| Oil | Yes | 51%n=71 from settlement history | – |
| China | Yes | 50%n=151 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | Yes | 48%n=110 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | Yes | 45%n=34 from settlement history | – |
| Eight War | Yes | 44%n=73 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 43%n=217 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | Yes | 34%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| World Cup | Yes | 34%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| MAHA / Make America Healthy Again | Yes | 25%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 58%n=168 from settlement history | – |
| Moon | No | 53%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| TrumpRX | No | 52%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | No | 48%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | No | 47%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Gaza / Palestine | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Antisemitism / Antisemitic | No | 43%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Shabbat / Sabbath | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fraud | No | 39%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| Embargo | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 38%n=139 from settlement history | – |
| Autopen | No | 36%n=37 from settlement history | – |
| Cuba / Cuban | No | 36%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Bibi / Netanyahu | No | 35%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| American Dream | No | 30%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 29%n=45 from settlement history | – |
| Hamas / Hezbollah | No | 29%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Ballroom | No | 28%n=60 from settlement history | – |
| Marco / Rubio | No | 28%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 4%n=357 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-26MAY05 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP