Donald Trump: Remarks, Dec 29, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say during his meeting with Zelensky?
Polymarket What will Trump say during Netanyahu event on Monday?
Markets
40 words · 16 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | 64%n=139 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 54%n=72 from settlement history | – |
| Eighth war / Eight wars | Yes | 50%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Eight War | Yes | 50%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Turkey / Erdogan | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Syria | Yes | 46%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Pardon | Yes | 45%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| ISIS | Yes | 44%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Bibi 3+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Nuclear 3+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Hamas / Hezbollah | Yes | 43%n=33 from settlement history | – |
| Rare Earth / Mineral | Yes | 42%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Hell | Yes | 41%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Gaza / Israel 12+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Real peace / Legitimate peace | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ceasefire | Yes | 31%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Trillion | No | 67%n=46 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 65%n=99 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | No | 58%n=58 from settlement history | – |
| Border | No | 57%n=83 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 55%n=106 from settlement history | – |
| China | No | 53%n=92 from settlement history | – |
| Investment / Invested | No | 51%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| F-35 | No | 50%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Middle East | No | 50%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 50%n=77 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | No | 49%n=33 from settlement history | – |
| Israel | No | 47%n=48 from settlement history | – |
| Hanukkah / Chanukah | No | 44%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Phase Two / Second Phase | No | 41%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Hostage 4+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Affordable / Affordability | No | 40%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 38%n=48 from settlement history | – |
| Tomahawk | No | 32%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Inflation | No | 32%n=38 from settlement history | – |
| N-word | No | 24%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Immigrant / Immigration | No | 19%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Maduro | No | 19%n=35 from settlement history | – |
| Drone | No | 17%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 7%n=216 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-25DEC29 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP