Donald Trump: Keynote, Jan 22, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say during his address at the WEF?
Markets
18 words · 17 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | 69%n=155 from settlement history | – |
| Trillion | Yes | 69%n=56 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 62%n=88 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 62%n=109 from settlement history | – |
| China | Yes | 62%n=100 from settlement history | – |
| Border | Yes | 59%n=89 from settlement history | – |
| Eight War | Yes | 57%n=38 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 56%n=122 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 54%n=83 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | Yes | 48%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| NATO | Yes | 48%n=41 from settlement history | – |
| Greenland | Yes | 46%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Invested / Investment | Yes | 46%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine | Yes | 45%n=41 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 43%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 43%n=36 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | Yes | 18%n=238 from settlement history | – |
| Manufacturing | No | 37%n=15 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-26JAN22 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP