Donald Trump: Remarks, Feb 4, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say during his meetings with the President of Colombia?
Markets
18 words · 0 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tariff | No | 65%n=115 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | No | 65%n=74 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | No | 61%n=168 from settlement history | – |
| Border | No | 55%n=93 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 53%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 53%n=135 from settlement history | – |
| China | No | 52%n=108 from settlement history | – |
| Eight War | No | 51%n=48 from settlement history | – |
| Cuba | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Fentanyl | No | 43%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Cartel | No | 37%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | 36%n=60 from settlement history | – |
| Cocaine | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Epstein | No | 31%n=64 from settlement history | – |
| Water | No | 30%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| ICE / National Guard | No | 28%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Maduro | No | 27%n=46 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 5%n=256 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
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