Donald Trump: Weekly window, Apr 5, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say this week?
Polymarket What will Trump say this week? (April 5)
Coverage
0 known appearancesno known appearances yet Window: Mar 30, 2026 to Apr 6, 2026. Counts: spoken + his own written posts. 0 own posts by @realDonaldTrump.
Markets
49 words · 24 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
Counts marked ≥ are lower bounds: not every appearance in this window is transcribed yet, so a word may have been said more often.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sleepy Joe | Yes | – | 0 | 85%n=67 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | Yes | – | 0 | 79%n=93 from settlement history | – |
| Barack Hussein Obama | Yes | – | 0 | 78%n=55 from settlement history | – |
| Melania | Yes | – | 0 | 75%n=41 from settlement history | – |
| 50,000 | Yes | – | 0 | 70%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Newscum | Yes | – | 0 | 67%n=48 from settlement history | – |
| Windmill | Yes | – | 0 | 67%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Thug | Yes | – | 0 | 66%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Predict / Prediction | Yes | – | 0 | 64%n=34 from settlement history | – |
| Congo | Yes | – | 0 | 63%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Filibuster | Yes | – | 0 | 62%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Autism | Yes | – | 0 | 62%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome | Yes | – | 0 | 60%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Kuwait | Yes | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Jerusalem | Yes | – | 0 | 54%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | – | 0 | 53%n=188 from settlement history | – |
| Epic Fury | Yes | – | 0 | 53%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Knock-out Panel | Yes | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Mad | Yes | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Sunday | Yes | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Drill Baby Drill | Yes | – | 0 | 50%n=59 from settlement history | – |
| Bibi / Netanyahu | Yes | – | 0 | 47%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Communist / Communism | Yes | – | 0 | 44%n=35 from settlement history | – |
| Khamenei / Khomeini | Yes | – | 0 | 26%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Autopen / Auto Pen | No | – | 0 | 78%n=35 from settlement history | – |
| Rigged Election / Stolen Election | No | – | 0 | 74%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Gay | No | – | 0 | 60%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Who are you with / Where are you from | No | – | 0 | 60%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Eight War | No | – | 0 | 58%n=67 from settlement history | – |
| UFC | No | – | 0 | 57%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Delcy / Rodriguez | No | – | 0 | 55%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Dark cloud | No | – | 0 | 55%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Stupid Question | No | – | 0 | 54%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Caravan | No | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Divider | No | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Eight Boats / Eight Ships | No | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hot as a pistol | No | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Mine dropper | No | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Plastic Egg | No | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Unlimited Ammunition | No | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| April Fool | No | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Epstein | No | – | 0 | 48%n=99 from settlement history | – |
| Hamas / Hezbollah | No | – | 0 | 37%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | – | 0 | 33%n=326 from settlement history | – |
| Discombobulator | No | – | 0 | 32%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Nobel | No | – | 0 | 28%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| Mog / Mogged / Mogging | No | – | 0 | 18%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Golden Dome | No | – | 0 | 17%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis | No | – | 0 | 14%n=33 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPSAY-26APR06 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP