Donald Trump: Remarks, May 18, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say during his Healthcare Affordability Event?
Polymarket What will Trump say during the Healthcare Affordability Event?
Markets
54 words · 17 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nuclear | Yes | 56%n=146 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | Yes | 56%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Bobby / Kennedy | Yes | 52%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 52%n=141 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 51%n=177 from settlement history | – |
| TrumpRX | Yes | 51%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| China | Yes | 50%n=155 from settlement history | – |
| Best military / Greatest military | Yes | 48%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Favored Nation | Yes | 46%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 43%n=232 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | Yes | 39%n=39 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | Yes | 38%n=78 from settlement history | – |
| Cash | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump 7+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Insurance | Yes | 33%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 29%n=66 from settlement history | – |
| Cuba / Cuban | Yes | 23%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Gas / Gasoline | No | 55%n=32 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | No | 53%n=101 from settlement history | – |
| Oil | No | 52%n=74 from settlement history | – |
| Manufacture / Manufacturing | No | 52%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | No | 52%n=253 from settlement history | – |
| Big Beautiful Bill | No | 51%n=42 from settlement history | – |
| FDA | No | 49%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Autism | No | 48%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Tax / IRS | No | 47%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Eight War | No | 46%n=74 from settlement history | – |
| Friend of mine | No | 46%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | No | 44%n=121 from settlement history | – |
| Eli Lilly | No | 43%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Ozempic / GLP-1 | No | 40%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Dust | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Great Healthcare Plan | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Great guy / Great person | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| No tax | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Percent 15+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Six Seven | No | 37%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| London | No | 37%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Fat shot / Ozempic | No | 36%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | No | 36%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Drug 15+ times | No | 35%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Supreme Court | No | 33%n=47 from settlement history | – |
| Psychedelic | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Vaccine / Autism | No | 31%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 31%n=149 from settlement history | – |
| Cocaine | No | 31%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| MAHA / Make America Healthy Again | No | 30%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Fentanyl | No | 29%n=37 from settlement history | – |
| Cancer | No | 29%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Hantavirus / Virus | No | 27%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Covid / Pandemic | No | 23%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis | No | 20%n=40 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 20%n=52 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 3%n=371 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-26MAY18 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP