Donald Trump: Speech, Jan 13, 2026
Polymarket What will Trump say at the Detroit Economic Club on Tuesday?
Markets
23 words · 12 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hottest | Yes | 60%n=111 from settlement history | – |
| Eight Wars | Yes | 60%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat Shutdown | Yes | 58%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Somalia / Somalian | Yes | 57%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Electric / Nuclear 3+ times | Yes | 56%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Million / Billion / Trillion 20+ times | Yes | 52%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Biden / Obama 9+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline 5+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Scam / Fraud 2+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hell 7+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Ford / General Motors | Yes | 46%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| ICE | Yes | 37%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Drill Baby Drill | No | 59%n=37 from settlement history | – |
| Maduro / Dictator | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Midterm Election | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| China 10+ times | No | 49%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Greenland | No | 48%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Ballroom / 250 | No | 47%n=34 from settlement history | – |
| Too Late | No | 47%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Job 15+ times | No | 46%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| USIFTA / NAFTA | No | 43%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Nobel | No | 25%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 14%n=227 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-at-the-detroit-economic-club-on-tuesday · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP