Donald Trump: Press briefing, Feb 21, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say during his Press Briefing on the Supreme Court decision?
Markets
25 words · 13 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trillion | Yes | 67%n=70 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 65%n=85 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 60%n=108 from settlement history | – |
| Eight War | Yes | 58%n=53 from settlement history | – |
| China | Yes | 58%n=115 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | Yes | 58%n=38 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 58%n=150 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | Yes | 58%n=47 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | Yes | 52%n=58 from settlement history | – |
| Kavanaugh | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Disgrace / Disgraceful | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation | Yes | 47%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | Yes | 42%n=45 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | No | 66%n=182 from settlement history | – |
| Investment / Invested | No | 56%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Refund | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| America First | No | 50%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Alien | No | 50%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Most Favored Nation | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Inflation | No | 43%n=45 from settlement history | – |
| Manufacturing | No | 41%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Too Late | No | 38%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | 34%n=65 from settlement history | – |
| Epstein | No | 32%n=80 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 17%n=278 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTIONB-26FEB21 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP