Donald Trump: Keynote, Mar 8, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say during the Shield of Americas Summit?
Markets
31 words · 17 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trillion | Yes | 68%n=78 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 67%n=196 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 66%n=113 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 63%n=135 from settlement history | – |
| Border | Yes | 62%n=100 from settlement history | – |
| Midnight Hammer | Yes | 58%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | Yes | 58%n=65 from settlement history | – |
| Eight War | Yes | 52%n=59 from settlement history | – |
| Marco / Rubio | Yes | 50%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Terrorist | Yes | 44%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Maduro | Yes | 43%n=51 from settlement history | – |
| Oil | Yes | 41%n=36 from settlement history | – |
| National Security | Yes | 40%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Cartel | Yes | 39%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Kristi / Noem | Yes | 38%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Cuba | Yes | 36%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Fentanyl | Yes | 35%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | No | 68%n=95 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | No | 61%n=46 from settlement history | – |
| China | No | 59%n=121 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 58%n=161 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 50%n=68 from settlement history | – |
| Obliterate / Obliterated / Obliteration | No | 50%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Gulf of America | No | 49%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Epic Fury | No | 47%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Donroe Doctrine | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Hormuz | No | 35%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Illegal Alien | No | 31%n=39 from settlement history | – |
| Mog / Mogged / Mogging | No | 28%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Epstein | No | 27%n=87 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 22%n=296 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-26MAR08 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP