Donald Trump: Interview, Feb 5, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say during his NBC interview?
Polymarket What will Trump say during the announcement on February 5?
Markets
40 words · 17 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrat | Yes | 66%n=75 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 65%n=169 from settlement history | – |
| Trillion | Yes | 58%n=64 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 55%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| ICE / National Guard | Yes | 53%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 51%n=116 from settlement history | – |
| Eight War | Yes | 50%n=49 from settlement history | – |
| China | Yes | 49%n=109 from settlement history | – |
| Border | Yes | 49%n=94 from settlement history | – |
| Kennedy / Autism | Yes | 48%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Job 7+ times | Yes | 43%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Percent 7+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 37%n=47 from settlement history | – |
| Tax / Tariff 7+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 36%n=92 from settlement history | – |
| Epstein | Yes | 31%n=65 from settlement history | – |
| Fat Shot / Ozempic | Yes | 31%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | No | 54%n=98 from settlement history | – |
| Million / Billion / Trillion 10+ times | No | 54%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 47%n=136 from settlement history | – |
| Biden / Obama 5+ times | No | 47%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Obliterated / Obliteration | No | 45%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Oman / Witkoff | No | 45%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| COVID / Pandemic | No | 44%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Hell | No | 41%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Paid Agitator / Professional Agitator | No | 40%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| U.K. / United Kingdom | No | 40%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Big / Biggest / Bigly 10+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Democrat 3+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Recorded History | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| TrumpRx 4+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Highest Inflation | No | 39%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Please 7+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | 35%n=61 from settlement history | – |
| Fentanyl | No | 35%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Peace Deal / Ceasefire | No | 33%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Kevin / Warsh | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Inflation | No | 31%n=43 from settlement history | – |
| Drone | No | 22%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 10%n=258 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTIONB-26FEB05 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP