Donald Trump: Remarks, Mar 11, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say during his remarks in Kentucky?
Markets
43 words · 25 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midnight Hammer | Yes | 66%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Sleepy Joe | Yes | 65%n=59 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 62%n=138 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 59%n=98 from settlement history | – |
| American Dream | Yes | 58%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| SAVE Act / Save America Act | Yes | 58%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 55%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| China | Yes | 54%n=124 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | Yes | 53%n=64 from settlement history | – |
| Epic Fury | Yes | 53%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 52%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | Yes | 51%n=68 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 51%n=164 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 51%n=115 from settlement history | – |
| Obliterate / Obliterated / Obliteration | Yes | 49%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | Yes | 47%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Endorse / Endorsed / Endorsement | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Windmill | Yes | 45%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | Yes | 45%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| ID / Identification | Yes | 44%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | Yes | 43%n=78 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | Yes | 41%n=51 from settlement history | – |
| Oil | Yes | 38%n=40 from settlement history | – |
| Thomas / Massie | Yes | 34%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Coal | Yes | 33%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Space Force | No | 59%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| November 5 | No | 56%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| No No No | No | 49%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Highest Inflation | No | 48%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Eight War | No | 48%n=61 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 47%n=109 from settlement history | – |
| Gulf of America | No | 42%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Supreme Court | No | 40%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| National Security | No | 38%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| America First | No | 31%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Cuba | No | 30%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Woke / DEI | No | 29%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | No | 29%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Kurd / Kurdish | No | 28%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Mojtaba / Khamenei | No | 25%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Epstein | No | 18%n=89 from settlement history | – |
| Mog / Mogged / Mogging | No | 15%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 5%n=300 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXPRESMENTION-DJT26MAR11 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP