Donald Trump: Remarks, Apr 6, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say during his remarks with Artemis II?
Polymarket What will Trump say during White House Easter Egg Roll on April 6?
Markets
36 words · 12 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sleepy Joe / Biden | Yes | 65%n=290 from settlement history | – |
| Genius | Yes | 56%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | Yes | 55%n=89 from settlement history | – |
| NASA | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Farmer | Yes | 45%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 43%n=192 from settlement history | – |
| Rocket | Yes | 42%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Moon | Yes | 42%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Apollo | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Mars | Yes | 40%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Obliterated / Obliteration | Yes | 39%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Movie star | Yes | 35%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | No | 59%n=81 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | No | 56%n=223 from settlement history | – |
| SAVE Act / SAVE America Act | No | 56%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| China | No | 55%n=139 from settlement history | – |
| Big Beautiful Bill | No | 54%n=38 from settlement history | – |
| Russia / Russian / Soviet | No | 53%n=75 from settlement history | – |
| Eight War | No | 50%n=67 from settlement history | – |
| Women's Sport | No | 49%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| UFC | No | 44%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| World Cup | No | 43%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Elon / Musk | No | 42%n=47 from settlement history | – |
| Epic Fury | No | 42%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| Rescue / Rescued | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Toilet | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| SpaceX | No | 40%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Easter | No | 40%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Construction | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Weather / Rain / Raining | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Jesus Christ | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Alien | No | 37%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| UFO | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Plastic Egg | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Ballroom | No | 27%n=45 from settlement history | – |
| Sleepy Joe | open | – | 38¢ Polymarket |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-white-house-easter-egg-roll-on-april-6 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP