Donald Trump: Remarks, May 22, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say during his remarks in New York?
Polymarket What will Trump say during Rockland County events?
Markets
71 words · 47 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| China / Chinese | Yes | 65%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 60%n=150 from settlement history | – |
| Social Security | Yes | 59%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear 3+ times | Yes | 57%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian 3+ times | Yes | 57%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Trillion | Yes | 57%n=97 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | Yes | 56%n=64 from settlement history | – |
| Election | Yes | 56%n=93 from settlement history | – |
| SAVE Act / Save America Act | Yes | 55%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Job 7+ times | Yes | 53%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | Yes | 53%n=104 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 52%n=146 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 51%n=179 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 51%n=258 from settlement history | – |
| First Term | Yes | 49%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | Yes | 49%n=69 from settlement history | – |
| Dumbocrat / Dumocrat / Dumacrat | Yes | 49%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Save America | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Border | Yes | 47%n=110 from settlement history | – |
| Scam / Fraud | Yes | 46%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 46%n=237 from settlement history | – |
| 401k | Yes | 45%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Excursion / Journey | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | 44%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Favored Nation | Yes | 44%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | Yes | 44%n=83 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | Yes | 42%n=127 from settlement history | – |
| Tax 7+ times | Yes | 40%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Buffalo | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Come on up here / Come up here | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Governor / Hochul | Yes | 40%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| MAGA | Yes | 39%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 36%n=40 from settlement history | – |
| Epic Fury | Yes | 36%n=39 from settlement history | – |
| Border 5+ times | Yes | 36%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Ballroom / Pool | Yes | 36%n=71 from settlement history | – |
| Golf / Golfer / Golfing | Yes | 34%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | Yes | 34%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| Warsh | Yes | 34%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Illegal Alien | Yes | 33%n=47 from settlement history | – |
| No Tax | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Six Seven | Yes | 31%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Stupid | Yes | 29%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| American Dream | Yes | 28%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| President Xi | Yes | 27%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| MAHA / Make America Healthy Again | Yes | 25%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 22%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| 250 | No | 66%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| 250 / 250th | No | 51%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Israel | No | 46%n=56 from settlement history | – |
| Eight War | No | 44%n=76 from settlement history | – |
| Communist / Communism | No | 42%n=44 from settlement history | – |
| UFO / UAP | No | 42%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| November 5 | No | 42%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Death Tax | No | 42%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 40%n=41 from settlement history | – |
| UFC | No | 40%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Yankee / Yankees | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Barack Hussein Obama | No | 35%n=80 from settlement history | – |
| No No No | No | 35%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| AOC / Ocasio-Cortez | No | 35%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 35%n=154 from settlement history | – |
| Ballroom | No | 33%n=68 from settlement history | – |
| Central Casting | No | 33%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| World Cup | No | 33%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Dust | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Peanut | No | 27%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Zohran / Mamdani | No | 27%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Ebola / Hantavirus | No | 23%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 19%n=53 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 3%n=377 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-26MAY22 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP