Donald Trump: Keynote, Jan 23, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say during his Fox interview?
Markets
18 words · 10 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | 71%n=157 from settlement history | – |
| Trillion | Yes | 70%n=59 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 66%n=90 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 60%n=124 from settlement history | – |
| Invested / Investment | Yes | 57%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| NATO | Yes | 57%n=43 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | Yes | 56%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| Greenland | Yes | 56%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 53%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 48%n=39 from settlement history | – |
| China | No | 64%n=102 from settlement history | – |
| Eight War | No | 60%n=41 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 57%n=86 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine | No | 53%n=44 from settlement history | – |
| Iceland | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Home / Housing | No | 44%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Credit | No | 42%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 26%n=242 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTIONB-26JAN23 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP