Donald Trump: Remarks, Apr 8, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say during his bilateral with the NATO Secretary General?
Polymarket What will Trump say during bilateral events with Mark Rutte?
Markets
58 words · 0 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barack Hussein Obama | No | 65%n=63 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear 3+ times | No | 63%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Gas / Gasoline | No | 59%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Obliterate / Obliterated / Obliteration | No | 58%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | No | 58%n=118 from settlement history | – |
| Iran 5+ times | No | 57%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Deal / Settle | No | 57%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | No | 56%n=225 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | No | 56%n=83 from settlement history | – |
| Equipment | No | 54%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| China | No | 54%n=140 from settlement history | – |
| Russia / Russian | No | 53%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation | No | 50%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Putin | No | 49%n=64 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 49%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Eight War | No | 48%n=70 from settlement history | – |
| Oil | No | 48%n=63 from settlement history | – |
| Eight Wars / Eighth War | No | 46%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Kuwait | No | 46%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| F-15 / F-15E | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Stock Market | No | 45%n=56 from settlement history | – |
| Iraq | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| CIA | No | 45%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 44%n=196 from settlement history | – |
| Biden / Obama 6+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Strait / Hormuz | No | 43%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Winston / Churchill | No | 42%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Lucky | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Courage / Brave | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| NATO 5+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| UK / United Kingdom | No | 41%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Leak / Leaker | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| UK / United Kingdom / Starmer | No | 40%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Pakistan / Pakistani | No | 40%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Fantastic | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Russia / Ukraine 5+ times | No | 39%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Take the oil / Keep the oil | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Afghanistan | No | 39%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Protest / Protestor | No | 38%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Greenland | No | 37%n=45 from settlement history | – |
| Drone | No | 37%n=40 from settlement history | – |
| Bully | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Spain | No | 36%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Macron / France | No | 36%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| JD / Vance | No | 36%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear dust | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Rare Earth / Mineral | No | 35%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| Think about | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 34%n=35 from settlement history | – |
| Supreme Leader | No | 34%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Kharg / Island | No | 33%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Too late | No | 33%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Bibi / Netanyahu | No | 32%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Out of NATO / Withdraw | No | 32%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| President Xi | No | 30%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Uranium | No | 27%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Cuba | No | 27%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 4%n=334 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-26APR08 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP