Donald Trump: Interview, Apr 12, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say during his Fox News interview?
Markets
25 words · 14 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | 64%n=226 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 62%n=128 from settlement history | – |
| China | Yes | 58%n=141 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | Yes | 57%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Oil | Yes | 56%n=64 from settlement history | – |
| Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 54%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| NATO | Yes | 54%n=63 from settlement history | – |
| Iran 5+ times | Yes | 53%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | Yes | 51%n=84 from settlement history | – |
| Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation | Yes | 51%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | Yes | 50%n=57 from settlement history | – |
| Obliterate / Obliterated / Obliteration | Yes | 49%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Eight War | Yes | 48%n=71 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | Yes | 37%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | No | 70%n=119 from settlement history | – |
| Barack Hussein Obama | No | 67%n=64 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 47%n=197 from settlement history | – |
| NASA / Moon | No | 47%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Peace | No | 42%n=32 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 35%n=36 from settlement history | – |
| Supreme Leader | No | 31%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| America First | No | 29%n=35 from settlement history | – |
| Epstein | No | 28%n=101 from settlement history | – |
| Uranium | No | 28%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 11%n=336 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-26APR12 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP