Donald Trump: Episode, Mar 4, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say during his Tech Roundtable?
Polymarket What will Trump say during Tech Signing event on March 4?
Markets
50 words · 21 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tariff | Yes | 63%n=132 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 60%n=193 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | Yes | 60%n=61 from settlement history | – |
| China | Yes | 58%n=120 from settlement history | – |
| Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation | Yes | 54%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Israel | Yes | 54%n=53 from settlement history | – |
| Windmill | Yes | 53%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Genius | Yes | 53%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Oil | Yes | 47%n=35 from settlement history | – |
| China 3+ times | Yes | 46%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Yes | 46%n=3 from settlement history | – | |
| AI / Artificial 5+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Obliterate / Obliterated / Obliteration | Yes | 40%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Electricity | Yes | 40%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Big Tech | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Build your own / Make your own | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| xAI | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Meta | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Job 10+ times | Yes | 38%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Hell | Yes | 37%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | Yes | 14%n=291 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | No | 62%n=92 from settlement history | – |
| Eight War | No | 58%n=58 from settlement history | – |
| Trillion | No | 58%n=75 from settlement history | – |
| TrumpRX / Trump RX | No | 57%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Dell | No | 56%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | No | 56%n=43 from settlement history | – |
| Peace in the Middle East | No | 56%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Good Friend of Mine / Friend of Mine | No | 50%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| High IQ | No | 47%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Epic Fury | No | 45%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Boom / Booming | No | 45%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 44%n=158 from settlement history | – |
| Woke / DEI | No | 43%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| National Security | No | 42%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Rare Earth / Mineral | No | 42%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Affordable / Affordability | No | 41%n=58 from settlement history | – |
| Cook / Jensen | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Anthropic | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Auto / Automobile | No | 40%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Manhattan | No | 40%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Stock / 401(k) / Roof | No | 39%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | No | 37%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Ballroom | No | 36%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Illegal Alien | No | 31%n=38 from settlement history | – |
| Mog / Mogged / Mogging | No | 31%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Bibi / Netanyahu | No | 30%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Khamenei / Ayatollah | No | 30%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Anthropic / Woke | No | 28%n=46 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTIONB-26MAR18 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP