Remarks transcript, Jun 17, 2026 (Donald Trump)
In remarks on Jun 17, 2026, Donald Trump said 8 of the 26 words Kalshi listed; Parrot’s count agreed with 25 of 26 settlements. Full transcript below (presidency.ucsb.edu, public domain).
UpdatedMarkets
26 words · 8 settled yes · our count agreed on 25 of 26- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oil | Yes | 7 | 7 | ✓ | 56%n=82 from settlement history | – |
| Iran 3+ times | Yes | 6 | 8 | ✓ | 76%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 5 | 5 | ✓ | 61%n=157 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 47%n=97 from settlement history | – |
| Ethiopia | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| First Term | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 55%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 53%n=272 from settlement history | – |
| Dumbocrat / Dumacrat | Yes | 0 | 0 | ✗ | 58%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 60%n=66 from settlement history | – |
| Trillion | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 58%n=99 from settlement history | – |
| 250 | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 55%n=35 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 47%n=255 from settlement history | – |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 44%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Eight War | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 41%n=78 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 40%n=52 from settlement history | – |
| Hezbollah | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 40%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| White House | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 39%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Palestine / Gaza | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 38%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| World Cup | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 36%n=34 from settlement history | – |
| Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 36%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Bibi / Netanyahu | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 34%n=44 from settlement history | – |
| Peace | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | 28%n=42 from settlement history | – |
| UFC | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 27%n=34 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 25%n=45 from settlement history | – |
| Nobel | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 22%n=35 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 3%n=399 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
118 passagesOfficial transcript · The American Presidency Project (UCSB), Gerhard Peters and John T. Woolley · Source · Public domain (US government work): full text.
Prepared remarks
Well, it's a great pleasure to be with my friend, the President of Egypt. He's respected all over the world, including by me, and our relationship has been very strong——
Yes.
——personally for a long time.
Yes, yes.
And we're working together. We're helping him with a little dam project——
Please.
——that I think was very—I think you were very unfairly treated, if you want to know the truth, in Ethiopia. But we'll discuss many things, including trade. And we do a lot of business with Egypt, and we'll be discussing that. We'll be discussing the Nile, because the Nile is getting a little emptier than it should be, and that's what we're here to talk about. Right?
Yes.
A dam was built in Ethiopia, and it's causing tremendous problems for Egypt, and I'm very aware.
I had that deal settled, and then we had a rigged election, and somebody came in and they didn't know too much about that deal. They were not going to settle anything, but we'll get back into it. And we'll see if we can settle it up. Okay?
Would you have—say something, please?
Well, first of all, let me express my highest appreciation and respect of your kind person. And thank you very much for allowing this opportunity, despite all of the hard work and the very busy schedule that you have, Mr. President.
Well, let me start by expressing big congratulations for the breakthrough that you have achieved, Mr. President, of restoring peace to the Middle East. Once the deal was announced, there has been great appreciation, but the admiration has increased in this marvelous management of such crisis at the highest level.
Thank you.
We're—we are waiting for the deal to be declared as a final deal so that we can react appropriately——
Good.
——and state our positive views and perspective of that great deal from the Presidency and on behalf of the Egyptian people.
I'd like also to express highest appreciation and respect of your kind person for the productive and excellent relations between Egypt and the United States and all the support that the United States is providing for Egypt.
Good.
For the record, again, Mr. President, I cannot overemphasize how much respect I have for you for your understanding of the challenging issue of the dam to Egypt.
I don't know if I'm going to say is appropriate or not, but I observed during the dinner of last night that you were surrounded, Mr. President, by all world leaders. They didn't leave you a moment to enjoy your dinner. [ Laughter ]
Yes. That was a lot of surround. That's right. Well, we had a great time, and it was a lot. It was a lot of work last night. You saw that.
Yes. [ Laughter ]
Thank you, Mr. President. Thank you very much.
Thank you very much. It's a great honor.
It's so nice to—[ inaudible ].
You look fantastic.
So I'll be doing a news conference at about 4 o'clock today before we leave. We're going to Paris, and then we'll be going home tonight, I guess, if you really figure it. So we'll be heading to Paris, where we have a big dinner meeting with a lot of the same people, and then we're going home. And it's been a very successful trip. A lot of things have happened that have been very good.
We'll be discussing a little bit about the deal with Iran at the 4 o'clock news conference. It's a great deal for a lot of reasons, but number one, by far—99.9 percent—is they will never have a nuclear weapon. And you can't give Iran a nuclear weapon, and they will never have a nuclear weapon. So that's very, very strong. It's a very strong deal. Nobody knows what it is, but it's very strong, and most people seem to be very happy.
Who's really happy is the market, because the market's gone up thousands of points over the last 4 or 5 days since hearing about it. And the Strait is going to be opening. It's already partially opened. It's going to be opening up soon, in full, over the next day or two.
And the market has gone wild, and oil has come tumbling down. Oil is at $73, $74, and it's getting to very close to where it was before the crisis. The difference is now we have Iran without a nuclear weapon. So we'll see how that all plays out. I think people are going to be very happy.
But there's nothing so smart as the market, and the market loves it beyond anything that I've actually seen. Again, the stock market has gone through the roof, and oil has come tumbling down. I guess it's in the low 70's now. Right?
Yes, sir.
That's right.
Yes, sir.
That's amazing. So that's what speaks. That speaks louder than words.
The alternative would be a worldwide depression. You know, the stupid people want to have a worldwide depression, and they're stupid people. So you can only go so far. Drive somebody into the ground, and a lot of bad things happen.
Number one, the Strait would never open because they don't like floating billion-dollar ships up and down a strait when there are rockets flying over them and mines all over the place. So, the Strait would never be open. It wouldn't be open for a long time.
So we have—we have a very hot stock market, and we have a very—starting to be a very low oil price, and that's going to have a huge impact on affordability caused by the "Dumocrats." The "Dumocrats" have caused so many problems. You have no idea.
But I'll never forget, I took over, and I'm in the office for 1 day, and I have my first news conference, and they said: "Affordability, sir. Affordability. What are you doing about it?" I said: "I just—I've just been here 1 day. They're telling me about afford"—[ Laughter ]. They're the ones that caused "affordability." It's just another con job. They made up the word "affordability."
But we're bringing prices down a lot, and they're coming down fast. And with the settlement—so worthwhile. With the settlement, where you're not going to have a nuclear weapon and then we bring them down on top of that. And I think oil prices might get lower than where they were before the war.
So I'm going to see you at 4 o'clock, and we'll discuss that a little bit, and we'll discuss other things. But we've had a great meeting. It's been a great summit, and France has done a fantastic job. President Macron has been really—he's really done a great job. It's been very well received.
Everybody here has been—I don't know if they've been happy. Some are not doing so well, but some are doing very well. But they've done a beautiful job.
Thank you very much, everybody.
Questions and answers
Mr. President, can you address the MOU that's been reported? It includes——
Have I read it?
Well, it's been reported that it includes a $300 billion——
It's false.
reconstruction fund——
Totally false.
funded by Gulf allies.
That's false?
No, it's false. That——
Is there any reconstruction fund?
People are—people—you can invest, if you want. I mean, what am I going to do, say "nobody's ever allowed to invest?" No, we're not investing. We're not putting up 10 cents. And people can decide to do that, but that's up to them. I mean, do you want me to say nobody's ever allowed to invest in a country? I'll say it with Egypt: "Nobody's allowed to invest in Egypt." Am I supposed to say that?
I'm asking whether there is a provision.
We are not investing in it——
I understand.
——and we do not have a fund.
Are you asking Gulf countries to put up a fund?
No, I'm not. I'm not. If they do it, fine. But I would say they won't be doing it for a while until they find out the behavior. It's a behavior thing.
But we are not investing, that's a false story that got picked up incorrectly from a statement that was pretty well made, I think. Maybe a little bit—could have been a little more accurate, frankly. But it's a story. We are not investing 10 cents.
Don't forget, there's never been anybody that's been so tough on Iran. This should have been done by Clinton and Barack Hussein Obama. It should have been done by Biden. It should have been done by Bush. It could have been done by a lot of people.
This has been going on for 47 years. They've ripped you off for 47 years, and I'm the only one that did anything about it. They never shot missiles at anybody. We wiped out their navy. We wiped out their military. We wiped out their air force. They have no anti-aircraft. They have no radar.
You know, the reason oil stayed low is because we were taking ships out every night that you didn't even know about. Two days ago, 3 days ago, a month ago, we took out 22 ships. We averaged from 15 to 25 ships a night. Nobody know that. Our Navy did a great job. Nobody knew what was happening.
That's why oil didn't go to $300 a barrel. It went to $125, $115. Now it's at $72, $73. I heard it's lower than that now. I haven't seen it in the last couple of hours.
No, we were very tough. And we took out a man named Soleimani. Remember that? You know? You think this would have happened if he were alive? The evil genius. He was an evil genius.
People forget that. I took out Soleimani in my first term. Without that, you don't have—probably, you don't have the situation that we're in today where we dominated. We dominated. We wiped out their military. And because we did that—and then we put up the blockade, which was totally effective. Not one ship got by.
Steve [Steve A. Holland, Reuters].
Yes, is the text of the agreement now final, or are you——
No, it's not final.
still tinkering around with it?
It's a memorandum of understanding. And if I don't like it, we'll go back to shooting at them——
I mean——
——dropping bombs on their head.
No, but when do you expect the wording to be final?
If I don't like it, if they don't behave, we'll go right back to dropping bombs right smack in the middle of their head. Okay? Because they've misbehaved for 47 years.
Yes, sir.
All right?
Does it include——
But nobody could have——
immediate sanction——
——made this deal.
I mean, the JCPOA, done by Obama—he handed them a billion-seven in cash, gave them hundreds of millions of dollars. Hundreds of—gave them billions and billions of dollars. But he gave them $1.7 billion in cash—green cash from banks—into a Boeing 757 and flew it into Iran.
And they stood at the plane. I have pictures of it. Like, "Oh my, look at this money he's giving us." He tried to bribe his way out. I didn't do that. Nobody mentions that. One-point-seven billion and hundreds of millions of dollars. They tried to bribe their way out of it.
And you know what the Iranians did? They laughed at Obama, and they said, "He's a stupid son of a bitch."
Okay. Thank you very much, everybody.
Quick question. Quick question. First of all, Mr. President——
Are you with Egypt?
Egypt, yes.
He had a question for me.
First of all——
I like your reporters better than mine.
Mr. President, first of all, happy belated birthday. And you making history today. A lot of problem. Will you support Egypt rights, water security if——
Well, that's what we're going to be talking about. You don't listen.
if—how and when, Mr. President?
Yes, that's what we're talking about.
Of course, I support Egypt. He's a friend of mine. From day one. You know, I met him early in the campaign when Crooked Hillary and I were running against each other. Right?
Yes.
And I was told that the President of Egypt is here. That was a big deal. It's still a big deal for me to be with the great President of Egypt.
Thank you.
But not as big as it used to be—[ laughter ]—before I ran. [ Laughter ]
So he was in a hotel, and I met him, and we fell in love—deeply in love. [ Laughter ] And he didn't even want to see Hillary. He said: "You're going to win. I don't want to meet her." He said, "You're going to win." He didn't want to see her. Remember that?
Yes.
So we had a good relationship right from the—no, we met. We didn't know each other before that. We had great chemistry. And we—I stayed twice as long as I was supposed to, took up her time. And then when it was her time, he didn't want to meet with her, but he did because he's a gentleman. But it lasted about 1 minute. [ Laughter ]
Thank you, everybody.
Does the—Mr. President, does the MOU contain immediate sanctions relief for Iran? Does it contain immediate sanctions relief for Iran?
No. No.
No immediate sanctions relief?
I'll tell you about it. No, no. They have to behave themselves.
How are you by the way, okay?
Well, thank you.
You also spoke about Syria also combating Hizballah yesterday.
Have you talked to al-Shara' about that?
[ Inaudible ]—talk about that later.
Have you talked to al-Shara' about it?
Is he willing to do it?
Is he willing to do it?
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