Donald Trump: Remarks, Dec 23, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say during his announcement?
Polymarket What will Trump say during Kennedy Center Honors?
Markets
42 words · 22 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trillion | Yes | 71%n=43 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 66%n=136 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 65%n=95 from settlement history | – |
| Border / Tariff | Yes | 65%n=126 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 59%n=56 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 56%n=103 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 55%n=70 from settlement history | – |
| Christmas | Yes | 54%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| China | Yes | 53%n=89 from settlement history | – |
| Eight War | Yes | 51%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Russia | Yes | 47%n=48 from settlement history | – |
| Investment / Invested | Yes | 46%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine | Yes | 46%n=37 from settlement history | – |
| King / Queen | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Country music | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Opera | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Rambo | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fish / Fishing | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Strength / Strong | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Economy | Yes | 31%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Dividend / Stimulus | Yes | 25%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Maduro | Yes | 14%n=32 from settlement history | – |
| Sleepy Joe / Autopen | No | 63%n=67 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | No | 48%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| Shit / Damn / Ass | No | 47%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Walz | No | 46%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| National Guard | No | 44%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Fentanyl | No | 41%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Beautiful 7+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Boxer / Boxing | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Champion | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tomahawk | No | 38%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Inflation | No | 37%n=35 from settlement history | – |
| Anniversary | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| November 5th / Election | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Transgender | No | 32%n=46 from settlement history | – |
| DEI | No | 31%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Hell 2+ times | No | 26%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| DEI / Woke / Women's sports | No | 26%n=55 from settlement history | – |
| Department of War | No | 25%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Drone | No | 20%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Woke | No | 18%n=33 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTIONB-25DEC23 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP