Donald Trump: Remarks, Mar 2, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say during the Medal of Honor Ceremony?
Polymarket What will Trump say during Medal of Honor ceremony on March 2?
Markets
49 words · 21 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Job 5+ times | Yes | 59%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 59%n=90 from settlement history | – |
| Midnight Hammer | Yes | 53%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Epic Fury | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Soleimani | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Beautiful 3+ times | Yes | 43%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Congress / Congressional | Yes | 42%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | Yes | 42%n=58 from settlement history | – |
| Tennessee | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Sacrifice / Sacrificed | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Obliterate / Obliterated / Obliteration | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Enemy 3+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Grenade | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Rifle | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Roll call | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Sniper | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Where are you | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Pete / Hegseth | Yes | 38%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Poland / Polish | Yes | 38%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | Yes | 34%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Secretary of War | Yes | 32%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 64%n=129 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | No | 60%n=190 from settlement history | – |
| Peace in the Middle East | No | 54%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Thug | No | 53%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 52%n=155 from settlement history | – |
| Cookie | No | 50%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Venezuela | No | 50%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Eight War | No | 49%n=56 from settlement history | – |
| Israel | No | 49%n=51 from settlement history | – |
| Marco / Rubio | No | 48%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Cuba / Turkey | No | 48%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Qatar / Dubai | No | 43%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Uranium | No | 40%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Enduring Freedom | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Evacuation | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Geneva Convention | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Regime Change | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Peace Through Strength | No | 36%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Constitution / Constitutional | No | 36%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Khamenei / Ayatollah | No | 36%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Bibi / Netanyahu | No | 35%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| B-2 | No | 34%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Mog / Mogged / Mogging | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Oil | No | 33%n=33 from settlement history | – |
| Zohran / Mamdani | No | 32%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Anniversary / Independence | No | 28%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 4%n=288 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTIONB-26MAR16 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP