Donald Trump: Interview, Jan 21, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say during his NewsNation interview (Part 2)?
Markets
16 words · 0 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trillion | No | 74%n=56 from settlement history | – |
| Eight War | No | 64%n=36 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 60%n=109 from settlement history | – |
| Big Beautiful Bill | No | 57%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 50%n=83 from settlement history | – |
| Border | No | 48%n=88 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine | No | 45%n=41 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | No | 43%n=39 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 43%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Home / Housing | No | 42%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Affordable / Affordability | No | 40%n=34 from settlement history | – |
| Somali / Somalia / Somalian | No | 38%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Credit | No | 34%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Supreme Court | No | 32%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Illegal Alien | No | 28%n=34 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 13%n=237 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-26JAN222 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP