Donald Trump: Remarks, Apr 17, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say during his remarks at Turning Point USA?
Polymarket What will Trump say during Arizona TPUSA event on April 17?
Markets
65 words · 37 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sleepy Joe | Yes | 70%n=69 from settlement history | – |
| ID / Identification | Yes | 63%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Trillion | Yes | 63%n=87 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | Yes | 60%n=57 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 59%n=159 from settlement history | – |
| Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 59%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Crime / Criminal | Yes | 54%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Drill Baby Drill | Yes | 53%n=63 from settlement history | – |
| Venezuela | Yes | 52%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | Yes | 52%n=88 from settlement history | – |
| Landslide | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Make America Great Again | Yes | 51%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| New York / Mamdani | Yes | 51%n=58 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | Yes | 51%n=99 from settlement history | – |
| Moon / Astronaut | Yes | 51%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Beautiful 3+ times | Yes | 49%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| MAGA / Make America Great Again | Yes | 49%n=51 from settlement history | – |
| Midterm | Yes | 49%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Oil | Yes | 48%n=66 from settlement history | – |
| ICE / TSA | Yes | 48%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 44%n=201 from settlement history | – |
| NATO | Yes | 42%n=66 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | Yes | 42%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Sheriff | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Eight Wars / Eighth War | Yes | 39%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Assassin / Assassinate | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Lunatic / Lunacy | Yes | 39%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | Yes | 37%n=62 from settlement history | – |
| Cheat / Cheater / Cheated | Yes | 37%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Fentanyl | Yes | 37%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Inflation | Yes | 35%n=51 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | Yes | 34%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Blockade | Yes | 30%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | Yes | 30%n=84 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | Yes | 25%n=40 from settlement history | – |
| Cuba | Yes | 25%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordability / Affordable | Yes | 22%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Windmill | No | 49%n=33 from settlement history | – |
| Common sense | No | 48%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Gulf of America | No | 47%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| American Dream | No | 46%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Central Casting | No | 46%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Million / Billion / Trillion 30+ times | No | 45%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Epic Fury | No | 44%n=34 from settlement history | – |
| Barack Hussein Obama | No | 44%n=68 from settlement history | – |
| McDonald / McDonald's | No | 43%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| Pope / Jesus | No | 43%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| God 10+ times | No | 41%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Kari / Lake | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Charlie / Kirk 5+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Secret Service | No | 39%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Candace / Tucker | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Pope | No | 39%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Medal of Freedom | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| No No No | No | 39%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Christian | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Sleepy / Biden / Obama 10+ times | No | 36%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Obliterate / Obliterated | No | 36%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Impeach / Impeached / Impeachment | No | 35%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 35%n=126 from settlement history | – |
| Kamala | No | 35%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Gay | No | 34%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| TikTok | No | 26%n=50 from settlement history | – |
| Woke | No | 24%n=36 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 4%n=340 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-26APR17B · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP